Seeking Alpha: Nintendo Switch Momentum Is About To Fade Away


Well-known member
Dec 11, 2018
  • Nintendo Switch has been showing outstanding results since its launch three years ago and has been creating massive amounts of shareholder value along the way.
  • However, we believe that the console’s momentum is about to fade away and its sales will deteriorate by the end of 2020 fiscal year amid intensified competition.
  • The company has no real catalysts in sight and its stock offers enough margin of safety to justify holding a short position in it.
It has been three years since the launch of Nintendo’s (NTDOY) flagship console Switch. While the console continues to show outstanding results, as its sales are annually increasing by single and double digits, its momentum is about to fade away. The looming global recession caused by COVID-19 is only one of many things that will disrupt Nintendo’s ability to create shareholder value in the near future. The upcoming release of the new generation of consoles, the full-scale launch of cloud gaming services and the poor monetization of Nintendo’s mobile titles are one of the few reasons why we are bearish on the company and hold a short position in it.

Is Nintendo doomed yet?

These vultures always say this kind of stuff. A year later they look like morons. If Nintendo releases new hardware, a Switch Pro of some sorts, they'll be fine. People are so hungry for Switch, which is a really underpowered console compared to even current gen, what's next gen gonna do about that? People already know Switch is more like a companion console. There are some people who only game on Switch, of course, but most people own PlayStation/Xbox/PC and have a Switch alongside it for amazing exclusives like Animal Crossing.

If the looming global recession impacts Switch, it'll also impact next gen, you morons. You think it'll be easy to sell $500+ consoles when most people will be straped for cash? And if people are straped for cash, and want a cheaper console to play with, won't the Switch Lite be a good option still? These "analysts" always look so out of touch. Always predicting doom on Nintendo, and Nintendo proving them wrong time and time again.

I will say one thing about Nintendo, though. Their online and mobile titles are straight trash. Playing Animal Crossing online is a frustrating experience. They need to make their network infrastructure more robust. Spoiler: they won't.

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